Global Gas and LNG Outlook 2026–2050: Structural Trends, Geopolitical Risks, and Implications for Qatar

Editorial Note: This paper was originally authored by Dr. Nikolay Kozhanov in his personal capacity. It has been reproduced and modified by the Global Institute for Strategic Research (GISR), Member of Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Qatar. The views expressed herein reflect those of the original author and do not necessarily represent the positions of GISR or Hamad Bin Khalifa University.

By the mid-2020s, the global gas and LNG sector entered a phase of profound structural transformation rather than a cyclical adjustment. Natural gas has lost its status as merely a “transition fuel” and has become a key element of a broader architecture of energy security, geoeconomic competition, and climate policy. After the 2021–2022 energy crisis and the war in Ukraine, gas and, especially, LNG has firmly established itself as a system-forming mechanism for balancing global energy markets, enabling the compensation of regional shocks, the reconfiguration of trade flows, and the growing share of variable renewable energy sources.